NSL Semifinal Preview: AFC Toronto vs Ottawa Rapid

Second against third, separated by a single point, in an Ontario derby that has been tight all season.

Both teams have strong team and tactical identities, and neither coach is likely to play a reactive style. Expect both to try to put their stamp on the game.

Neither side arrives in great form, though. Toronto's is better, with four wins, four draws and two losses in their last 10, but they handed their Shield hopes away by losing to Calgary two weeks ago. They struggled to finish their chances, once again, against Halifax, losing control of the game in the second half.

Ottawa’s season was defined by a flying start, then an epic slide when Scott and Pridham went down: two wins, a draw and seven losses in their last 10. They only recently righted the ship, but still lost the decisive game in which they could have won the Shield vs Montréal last week.

Two legs, aggregate goals (penalties if needed), and a chance for Ottawa to play the Final on home turf.

The winner faces Montréal or Vancouver on Saturday, November 14 at TD Place.

Toronto edged the 2026 series with two wins, two draws and one loss, outscoring Ottawa 9–6. That +3 goal difference across five games says it all: this has been a very different matchup from the other semifinal.

Even the 3–0, the most recent meeting, was closer than the scoreline suggests. Melenhorst had a goal inexplicably called offside, and Fridlund was denied by D’Angelo before Stratigakis got the insurance marker on the ensuing counter.

Goals are likely to come. These sides average three a game, and only one meeting has had fewer than three. There have been plenty of early and first-half goals, so expect open, expansive games rather than a park-the-bus situation.

Venue matters too. Toronto have not beaten Ottawa at TD Place this season, while Ottawa’s only win came at York Lions Stadium, where the first leg will be played.

The fans have shown up for this rivalry. More than 18,000 have attended the five meetings, including 7,000 at BMO Field, Toronto’s highest attendance of the season. That works out to an average of 3,600, above the league average of 3,300.

Toronto’s squad has changed a lot since the start of the season. They signed CanWNT stars D’Angelo and Zadorsky, plus Americans Hasenauer and Silano, brought in to replace injured internationals. They are contending with three major season-ending injuries, and Okoronkwo in particular has been a big miss.

The biggest question is at right centreback. Milanovic continues to omit Victoria Pickett, which leaves a problem area on the right side of the back line. Barnett, who is left-footed, has filled in there recently, but she is at her best as a wingback.

The other option is to move Rollins to the right, play Zadorsky centrally and shift Barnett to left centreback. That still takes Barnett out of the wingback role. Zadorsky is also in doubt according to the availability report, though she was seen training this week.

Right wingback is unsettled too. Zoe Burns is still listed as questionable, and Toronto have swapped between Katembo and Burns there all season. Lauren Rowe started there last match ahead of Katembo, which pushed Hunter back up front alongside Silano after several weeks in midfield.

In midfield, Chisholm or Hasenauer will have the important task of shielding the back line and tracking Min-A. Does Milanovic trust the experienced American, or give the youngster the nod? Or does he pull Hunter back into midfield, and bring Stratigakis off the bench, a role she has played more often than not in the latter half of the season? If he did that, he'd be leaving a player out who has more goals than any other across the two squads in this matchup.

Ottawa have come through their injury period with no players currently listed as injured, and the squad looks largely the same as it did at the start of the season. Olivia Scott and DB Pridham are both back and have a few starts under their belts already. That leaves only two lineup questions: fullback and the No. 10.

Forbes has recently been converted to left fullback as Belzile has pushed into the starting XI, but she will have a tough task dealing with Toronto’s overload on that wing between the wingback and Small. The more defensive option, Adamek, may not be ready to start after a long injury.

On the right, it’s between Choo and Golen. Golen is another winger converted to fullback, while Choo is the more experienced defender. The versatile Waite could also slot in.

At the 10, I would start Min-A. Watch back the games between these teams, and she is influential in nearly every Ottawa goal. Her interplay with Melenhorst and Jung, her ability to occupy space in front of defenders and slide in through balls, and her comfort in tight spaces could be the difference.

Two of the best midfielders in the league go head to head. Both are physical, both have insane engines, and both are central to how their teams play. Melenhorst leads the league in assists, while Small leads it in tackles. Whoever wins this battle will go a long way toward deciding the tie.

Kaylee Hunter vs DB Pridham. Two CanWNT sensations, playing opposite one another. One a young phenom, one a late bloomer, both discovered in the NSL, and both in decent form. Hunter has struggled to be clinical in this matchup, though, and the Rapid have been able to frustrate her. Hunter will be influential as a playmaker too. Her connection with Rowe and Small is absolutely out of this world. On the other side, can Pridham be kept quiet over 180 minutes by a makeshift AFCT defence?

Sabrina D’Angelo and Melissa Dagenais will face plenty of shots across the two matches, with firepower on both sides. Which CanWNT keeper can hold her team up? D’Angelo has been fantastic down the stretch, and her teammates have noticed: “Sabs is incredible,” Barnett said after the Halifax draw (Waking The Red). Dagenais, meanwhile, was a gamechanger in last year’s semifinal, pulling out save after save and ensuring the second leg went to penalties in the first place.

Victoria Pickett’s exclusion causes problems for Toronto, starting with Barnett being moved out of her best position. Will Milanovic hold firm on leaving her out as a “coach’s decision”?

Pickett’s own statement has stirred the pot even further. She made clear she is not out for physical or mental health reasons, and that she is staying “locked in.” If Toronto’s back line struggles in the first leg, the pressure to bring her back will only grow.

Ottawa advance, 4–3 on aggregate.

Ottawa have extra motivation: a win sends them to a championship game at home, and it would give their beloved coach Pedersen the send-off she deserves before she leaves at the end of the season. Toronto, meanwhile, want to avenge their 2025 Championship loss. But they have major questions around their lineup and injuries, at right centreback, right wingback and central midfield.

Toronto’s defence, the joint-best in the league, keeps the first leg level, but the Rapid's versatile offence finish the job at TD Place, where Toronto have yet to win this season.

What’s your prediction? Let me know on socials!

The winner heads to TD Place for the NSL Final on Saturday, November 14 at 2 p.m. ET, to face the Roses or the Rise. Get Final tickets if you’re in the area!

Final weekend also brings Women’s Sport Now, the NSL’s conference on the growth of women’s sport, on November 13th. I’ll be in Ottawa covering both, so follow along on socials for photos, video and interviews. Get conference tickets if you want to join me and network with Canadian women’s sport legends.

And don’t miss my preview of the other semifinal: Montréal vs Vancouver.