Five Games to Decide Everything: The NSL Home Stretch

The final five games of the NSL season are here, and everything is still to play for, with no teams clinching a playoff spot yet, all teams mathematically still in playoff contention, and the Supporter’s Shield turning into a three-horse race due to Toronto’s strong run of form, built on a reliable defense.

Here are the standings after 20 games.

Things have changed drastically since our mid-way point check-in. Montreal sits atop the table despite a mid-summer coach sacking and Ottawa is on a 5-game losing streak and has dropped to third. Vancouver and Halifax are locked in a back-and-forth battle over the final playoff spot that cost Rise coach Anja Heiner-Moeller her job.

Form, health, and scheduling all point to a thrilling finish, but each contender faces a very different path. Let’s take a look at each team’s form and final schedule, which players will shape their success, how injuries factor into it all, and one big question for each team.

Remaining schedule

Montréal controls its own destiny.

The Roses could become the first team to clinch the playoffs this weekend. A win and the league leaders are in. But of course, they’re playing for the Supporter’s Shield at this point, so they’ll need to keep winning to keep Ottawa and Toronto off their backs, who both sit 5 points back.

Their schedule is both favourable and unfavourable. Given their struggles at Stade Boréale this season, they’ll be pleased to face Vancouver on the road, a team they have already beaten three times this season. The two matches against Halifax will be difficult, but they’ll back themselves to outscore the Tides at Wanderer’s Ground. 

The most intriguing matches are their two home games against Ottawa. With only a few points between them currently those games will be crucial, not only for the standings, but to prove to themselves they can win at home. After all, their poor home record was one of the reasons Robert Rositoiu was let go in August following their W Canadian Championship loss to Simcoe. Time will tell whether their substandard home turf becomes a tripping hazard.

A look at the XI

Interim coach Bard-Martel recently made a minor tactical tweak, deploying Bilbault as a 6 in a 4-3-3 set-up, opting for an asymmetrical system with classic fullbacks rather than wingbacks. Often, the starting and endpoints end up looking similar with the same back three of Sauve, Cappadona, and Seto in the buildup and Whitaker joining the midfield line. Pechersky has been relieved of the previous defensive responsibilities and isn’t asked to track back as far, because Bilbault primarily staying home gives enough cover to manage defensive transitions.

Unlike Toronto and Ottawa, Montréal enters the final stretch relatively healthy and with multiple attacking options rather than one focal point. Yes, Elyse Bennett is scoring at a steady pace and is up to 11 goals on the season, but Boychuk, Pechersky, Paquin, and Alidou have shown that focusing on Bennett alone would be a costly error. The width is provided by the Pechersky and Whitaker or Paquin, and opposition centerbacks are occupied with Bennett and either the winger who has tucked in or a midfield runner.

Defensively, things are looking quite solid as well. Anna Karpenko is arguably the best goalkeeper in the league, and Cappadona, Seto, and Sauve are a cohesive unit with complimentary strengths, and Whitaker looks in her updated role. While Cappadona is the quarterback (2nd most passes league-wide), Sauve is often the ball-winner, and Seto has the ability to break the first line of pressure with her dribbling. With the addition of NWSL veteran Anna Heilferty who can play as a defender or midfielder, and recent return of CB Stephanie Hill, the Roses are nearly back to full strength. Only Leas and Perisset remain on the sidelines. 

Their form is good with 3 wins, 2 clean sheets, and no losses in the last 5 games. If you ask me, the Roses are set up to win. Either the Shield, the Championship, or both. But whether they do that is entirely up to the group staying locked into the mission and overcoming any inevitable obstacles coming their way, self-imposed or otherwise.

The Big Question

Can Montréal overcome their troubles at home to win their first piece of NSL hardware?

Remaining schedule

On paper, this is probably the best schedule of the contenders.

Toronto ends their season with four home matches (2 at York Lions, 2 at BMO). Given their struggles at BMO, who knows whether that’s a good thing, but theoretically, it’s a huge advantage to avoid any travel in the final month of the season. Plus, only one game remains against a current top-three side.

They face a similar question as the Roses do. Can they get it done at home? Yes, they’ve broken the infamous BMO curse but they also followed that up with an underwhelming 2:2 draw vs Calgary on the Lakeshore.

A look at the XI

After a brief flirtation with a 3-4-3 set-up, Marko Milanovic reverted back to the OG 3-1-4-2 with Uddenberg at the base of midfield, in the ‘Regan role’. Looking at the personnel available, you might call it a B team, given Kai Novak, Esther Okoronkwo and Linda Owusu’s absence through injury, and CanW20s stars Hunter and Chisholm being unavailable for selection due to their World Cup commitments.

The thing is, regardless of personnel, Toronto has gotten it done in recent weeks, losing only twice in the last 10, and surging all the way to second place thanks to consistent and defensively sound performances. Sabrina D’Angelo is already up to 5 clean sheets, good for second league-wide, and the defensive line, in its current constellation, is the best in the NSL. Sarah Rollins continues to flourish and has played every available minute, with Pickett back to her best following an injury and Shelina by her side, leading to only 20 goals conceded (tied for first in the NSL). 

Midfield duo Nikayla Small and Sarah Stratigakis continue to elevate their partnership, Small leading the league in tackles and Strats has contributed four goals and three assists this season. Toronto have brought in American reinforcements throughout the year to offset some of the absences, including NWSL vet Lena Silano who has been filling in for Hunter and Okoronkwo (who will miss the remainder of the season). Central midfielder Zoe Hasenauer joined from Bundesliga Cologne and has made two short appearances off the bench.

With the defensive foundation established, the in-form U20 duo returning to the fold, and proper reinforcements secured, Toronto may yet make a surprise push for a second Supporter’s Shield. Of course, they have their eye on the Championship, and if Toronto survives the next week or two without their young stars, the calendar could suddenly become their biggest advantage.

Question 

Can Toronto's veteran defensive core carry them all the way to the NSL Championship they narrowly missed out on last year?

Remaining schedule

Ottawa’s brutal schedule will be a test of their character.

Ottawa still has Toronto, Montréal twice, and Vancouver ahead of them. Four of five games come against direct rivals. They have to right the ship quickly, and high-flying Calgary visiting TD place this Sunday, aren’t going to make that easy. 

A look at the XI

Things can change quickly. Earlier in the year Ottawa looked like the league's strongest team by far. Pridham was scoring and assisting for fun and the new midfield pivot of Jung and Melenhorst looked like the best in the league, and they went on a 10-game unbeaten streak from end of May to early August before the wheels came off. 

Now they face the toughest remaining schedule on a 5-game losing streak while dealing with injuries to Olivia Scott and Adamek and without Jung and Choo who are unavailable this weekend due to international duty. On top of all that, DB Pridham missed nearly 5 weeks of play due to suspension and then injury and is ramping back up to full fitness. 

Coach Pedersen, who has otherwise been the picture of tactical consistency, has switched up her selections and even tried a different formation, a 3-4-3 with a back three of Harris, Waite, and Hannah Chown, to break out of the slump, but to no avail. She went back to the typical 4-2-3-1 last match, but without DB as the #9, the Rapid struggled to create chances (only 7 shots) and didn’t convert any of their 4 shots on target.

Nineteen goals conceded in the last five matches speaks for itself and further highlights exactly how missed Olivia Scott has been. The Rapid’s captain has been out since the August 3rd match vs Halifax that doubled as a Can W Championship match. In her absence, Jylissa Harris hasn’t looked the same and the fact that Dagenais leads the league in saves is both a testament to her shot-stopping ability and a sign that Ottawa is allowing way too many shots on net.

Ultimately, Ottawa’s lack of depth has contributed significantly to their decline. If you were paying close attention, you might not even be that surprised given the fact that the Rapid started the season with only 22 players signed. Their lack of movement in the summer transfer window was further concerning to that end. Now, they’re paying for those choices.

Question 

Can Ottawa stay in the title race long enough for key players to return?

Remaining schedule

Nobody controls the playoff race more than Vancouver

The Rise are chasing rather than leading, but they still play all three teams ahead of them, as well as Calgary twice. That means they can directly take points from the teams they’re chasing, and throw a wrench in the title mix, all while, hopefully, keeping Halifax off their backs.

This weekend’s match against Montreal will be a big opportunity to keep recent positive momentum going, and the Rise will feel confident in their ability to get points in Calgary and Toronto. The table is still so tight that the Rise could still end up in third place above the Rapid, which is why that penultimate match against Ottawa is circled in the calendar.

A look at the XI

The Vancouver Rise find themselves struggling with the same issues that had them consistently outside of the top 3 last season. Travel, injuries, and defensive weaknesses. Only this year, they didn’t go on an epic unbeaten run to make up for lack of results early in the year. And that cost their inaugural Championship-winning coach Anja Heiner-Moeller her job. Sacked after another unfortunate home loss at Swanguard against direct playoff competition Halifax, the Rise will move forward with Iain Darbyshire as interim head coach for the remainder of the season. He’ll continue the tactical change that had already been underway since about August. 

The Rise ditched the three back system and switched to a 4-3-3, probably realizing that they were too vulnerable given the ever rotating cast of defenders deployed this season. Plus, without Quinn to spray the ball around the pitch and switch the point of attack, the numerical advantage in the wide channel just wasn’t happening. 

The good news is, that tactical change was already paying dividends before that unfortunate loss against the Tides. Three wins, only 5 goals against, and 13 goals scored in the last 5, things were looking up. Plus, the formation change has two of the NSL’s top players playing at their best in the right positions. Jess De Filippo is playing a bit further back as a #10, unleashing her full playmaking potential and Anna Bout (3 goals, 4 assist), who did well as a wingback too, is filling in admirably for the injured Quinn and Stanton in a position more familiar to her. Both are in contention for Team of the Season, and De Filippo’s 15-point campaign (11 goals, 4 assists) puts her in CanWNT contention, with Casey Stoney admitting she is tracking her progress.

In other good news, Jess Cowart is finally back on the pitch after breaking her collarbone, perfect timing for the end of season crunch. If Vancouver gets all their ‘in-doubt’ players back, and Lopez returns from the U20 World Cup soon, we could see the Rise at full strength at the perfect time to cause some real chaos in the standings.

Question 

Will Heiner-Moeller’s sacking kick the reigning champs into gear?

Remaining schedule

Halifax may become queenmakers.

They play Toronto and Montréal twice. That's four matches that directly affect the title race while chasing that elusive final playoff spot. If they manage to upset the top two teams and beat Calgary, they have a real chance at making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, a feat that would be impressive given their complete squad overhaul ahead of the season.

The fact that they don’t play Vancouver again could be the biggest downside to their current schedule. They won’t have the ability to steal points from their direct rival who sit two points ahead of them for the final playoff spot, so they’ll have to hope the Rise stumbles and capitalize when that happens. With a four game home stretch upcoming, plus the buzz around Halifax about the planned new permanent stadium, it’s a great time to go on a winning streak, reward their fans for their ongoing support, and make up ground in the playoff race.

A look at the XI

Even though Halifax sits fifth, their defensive profile has made them difficult to play against all year (only 20 goals against, tied for first). A lot of that comes down to their elite defenders. Specifically, the fullbacks Julianne Vallerand and Sheyenne Allen consistently rank among league leaders in minutes, touches, and tackles. Addy Weichers has been a consistent presence on the backline and first-year pro Naya Cardoza is my pick for rookie of the year due to her consistently good positioning, tackling, and passing.

The challenge lies at the other end of the pitch. 20 goals scored is the lowest in the league. It’s not for lack of effort or even opportunities. The Tides have the third most shots in the NSL and players like Jordyn Rhodes are firing on all cylinders. Rhodes is second in the league in shots (54, 23 on target) but has only 5 goals to her name. Vallerand, Benati, and Miller trail her with 4 each. With only 6 goalscorers so far, Halifax needs to become more clinical and develop more varied threats or they risk more draws and losses in the most crucial games of the season.

Stephen Hart is back at the helm after a prolonged absence due to personal reasons. He’ll be working closely with his staff to solve the goalscoring problems while maintaining their defensive stability. A lot of it will actually come down to the midfield, which has been in rotation all year. The fact that there is no clear midfield pivot at this point in the season is surprising, and certainly isn’t helpful when it comes to creating high-yield chances. 

It’s a big task but one the Tides are up for. They’ve already proven to be tough to beat so if they can find that needed cohesion and finish their chances, they might just be playing in the post-season for the first time come late October.

Question 

Can Halifax spoil somebody else's season while capturing the final playoff spot?

Remaining schedule

Calgary isn’t going down without a fight.

For a team that went without a win for 14 games and went on a 7-week losing streak at the start of the season, what the Wild are doing now is impressive. Yes, it’s too late and, yes, they will be mathematically eliminated as soon as this weekend, but you have to respect how they’ve pulled things together of late.

Their 7-game unbeaten streak will end eventually, but it’s been a fun ride. For the Wild, the only unfortunate part of their remaining schedule is that they’ll only play one more game at home in a couple of weeks. Just as the team is getting good, fans will have to watch from afar as Calgary aims to cause as much chaos as possible in the Shield and Playoff races.

A look at the XI

This team is nearly unrecognizable when compared to the start of the season. Not only in quality of play, but also in personnel. The Summer window was a busy one with Americans Otto, Pogarch, Aulicino, and Boughton coming in to strengthen the midfield and backline. Taylor Otto is exactly who Meikayle Moore needed as a CB partner, a calm presence with poise on the ball and good decision-making. NWSL legend “Po” has been the needed solution at LB.

One of the biggest improvements actually came from in-house though, with Sarah Keilty-Dilling getting the chance in net and emphatically stealing the starting gloves. The 33-yo has been one of the stories of the season thanks to her saves and apparent positive influence on the team. Trust between a goalkeeper and the back line is vital and for the first time this year, the Wild look like they have that.

On the other end of the pitch, Jorian Baucom is finally scoring some goals, now up to four on the season, mainly due to getting better service and a more efficient press leading to regains higher up the pitch. The front four of Johnson, T. Stewart, Thurton, and Baucom are clicking and look more confident than ever. The most impressive part of the recent upswing is that Calgary have done it mostly without their Captain Meggie Dougherty Howard who has missed about half of all available minutes. 

Coach Leah Blayney is back with the team after stepping away for a family emergency, but every game they play now is a learning opportunity for her and she’s certainly already thinking about what she can take forward into next season.   

Question 

Which contender will drop unexpected points to Calgary?

Five games may not seem like much, but in a league this competitive, it's enough time for everything to change. Montréal controls its own destiny, Toronto is charging at the right moment, Ottawa is trying to stop the bleeding, Vancouver and Halifax are battling it out, and Calgary is determined to play spoiler. The NSL's second season has already delivered plenty of twists; now, the final month will determine which stories are remembered and which teams are left wondering what might have been.

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